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Amid today’s oil driven economies, can electric cars ever become affordable enough to challenge the supremacy of internal combustion?
To arrest rising global temperatures, the way we travel must change. But the future for electric vehicles will depend on a curious mix of economics, science and government intervention. Giles Crosse weighs up the arguments.
Electric cars have the potential to replace existing, carbon intensive travel. But minimal existing fuelling stations, worldwide oil prices and expensive batteries could stop this from happening. What’s the problem?
Any new science must be affordable as well as innovative. Electric cars can only work if oil prices rise, so that higher running costs for conventional vehicles become unattractive compared with electric versions, which are expensive to buy but cheaper to use.
There is an environmental cost to driving vehicles based on fossil fuel, and currently not all that cost is accounted for or paid by the consumer.” explains Ying Wu, Senior Analyst for Lux Research. “As we improve on the mechanisms to fully capture the environmental cost, it will become more expensive to drive oil based vehicles, consequently making electric vehicles more cost competitive.”
But at the moment this isn’t the case. So should governments help get electric options off the ground? “Government subsidies can certainly help to offset battery costs initially to encourage adoption.” says Wu. “But eventually the economics of electric vehicles have to make sense for it to be a long lasting business.”
Optimising the options
The more petrol costs, the cheaper electric cars will be. But no one knows for sure how oil will fluctuate. There are several electric types: hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug in hybrids (PHEV) and all electric vehicles (EV).
Some predictions estimate markets will remain tiny for PHEVs or EVs unless oil prices race up. “Even in the scenario with $200/bbl oil in 2020, only about 4 per cent of the vehicles sold worldwide will be PHEVs or EVs, due to the high costs of the battery technology for these vehicles.” explains Lux Research’s Jacob E. Grose.
Then again, HEVs stand to gain in either scenario, as they balance use of both technologies. But are these necessarily the best way forward? “The ‘greenness’ of electric vehicles depends on the underlying technology used to generate electricity.” says Wu.
“If we continue to use coal based technology to generate electricity, then driving an electric vehicle will emit just as much if not more greenhouse gas as gasoline powered vehicles.”
Chicken and egg
There are other problems. Right now there aren’t enough fuelling stations or servicing centres for electric vehicles. Is cash likely to be forthcoming to support this, especially from hitherto oil-beholden governments?
“There are a number of companies developing technologies and business plans to address battery recharging issues and service stations to support the electrification of vehicles.” says Wu. But it will take time, new technology and sizeable investment for it to happen. Who pays? “The money will come from both the private and public sectors.”
It’s not even possible to say with absolute certainty electric options are the greenest way forward: “The overall sustainability of vehicles will depend on your choice of fuel, production methods of the fuel, choice of drive chain technology and driving habits.” reveals Wu.
“It would be irresponsible, and technologically incorrect, for me to make a statement that it would be electric vehicles or fuel cell vehicles that will be most sustainable, although a lot of people in the general public have been led to believe so. It could also be micro hybrids or diesel powered vehicles with high efficiency and low emissions.”
Which way to turn?
So much will depend on how global economic markets vary. Astonishingly, Lux estimates if oil prices stabilised around $200/bbl, light PHEVs could become the best selling electric vehicle in the U.S. by 2020, with over one million units sold. Government stances are important too: Japan might generate most demand for electric vehicles, due to high gasoline prices and generous government subsidies.
“It will be an iterative process and gradual change rather than either infrastructure first or EV first kind of scenarios.” predicts Wu. “It’s never going to be that clear cut.”
Given recent turmoil in stock and global finance, will companies have the nerve to encourage investment in tomorrow’s electrical vehicles? And if they do, will oil markets support or crush the emerging technologies? It’s a true indication of how inherently linked economics and environment are.
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Cars may need to become electric. Be that as it may. But, in the meantime, while we’re replacing a world full of petrol fuel cars with electric ones, we need a dynamic quick fix which requires no time lag and no constructing of anything, let alone scrapping millions of existing cars.
I propose to simply raise the age at which one may obtain one’s first driving licence. This one procedure will immediately reduce global warming trends and also save lives by keeping young drivers from getting behind the driver’s wheel.
Of course like all change, there will be opposers. But the answer is that some young people will need to make adjustments to contribute to the successful survival of this planet. They are young and fit and will live longest through over-heated futures. Youth make sacrifices as soldiers. Now we need soldiers to fight the war against global warming.
