Copenhagen crisis
As the planet seethes in the light of Copenhagen failures, Giles Crosse casts an eye over what can be done to maintain positivity.
“I spent about ten hours in a rather stuffy room with President Obama and about twenty Heads of State and Government who were into the nitty gritty of drafting the final text,” said Yvo de Boer, describing the final moments of the conference.
“We now have a Copenhagen accord which I think contains a number of very significant elements in terms of a maximum temperature increase goal, commitment by industrialised countries, engagement of developing countries, significant short and long term financial support being indicated, new mechanisms created for technology and forestry issues, so an impressive accord.”
“But, not an accord that is legally binding, not an accord that at this moment pins down industrialised countries to individual targets, not an accord that at this stage specifies what major developing countries will do. Not an accord that at this stage makes it clear how the 30 billion that it talks about is to be divided up amongst individual contributors.”
“It’s politically incredibly significant because it has brought together Heads of State from the North and the South, from large counties from small countries, but at the same time you have to recognise that what this has put in place is a letter of intent, an indication of a willingness to move forward, the ingredients of an architecture that can respond to the long term challenge of climate change but not in precise legal terms, and that means that we have a lot of work to do on the road to Mexico.”
For many, the lack of any meaningful legal driver will be the long term legacy of Copenhagen. Whilst it was thought a challenge, hope had existed that worldwide leaders would be able to put aside issues surrounding sovereignty in favour of a more global approach. In legal terms, this failed.
The next steps
“You might argue that to an extent the conference was hijacked by various countries,” suggests Julian Caldecott, Environmentalist and advisor to Our Future Planet.
“There is a consensus that China had its own agenda but also that it may have shot itself in the foot. By failing to support places like Africa, offering little or no help or leadership, it may find itself facing political change.”
“This is a sudden change, China is unused to activities which aren’t directly related to its own sovereignty, whereas adaptivity is needed to deal with such issues in the right complexity. Things including cap and trade and carbon intensity have been addressed, but the problem may be demoralisation.”
“Indonesia is the third largest global emitter of greenhouse gas,” he continues. “Will focus remain there given the failure of larger countries to show leadership? We need reassurance that lessons will be learned. It would be catastrophic to loss the intensity and importance of the debate that has been taking place.”
“A key price on carbon, a floor price endorsed by the UN and developed by China and the US,” says Caldecott, describing steps that would get things back on plan. “I recently met pension funds with trillions to put into green tech like renewables, but without sensible regulation and a level playing field on carbon they can’t do it.”
“We might look forward to the Commonwealth playing a larger role, this might be interesting,” he says, pointing to the future. “There will be a need to rebuild trust and there’s an obvious point that countries need to have decided what they will agree on before they arrive, it can’t be done at the last minute. Ecology and the systems that determine climate change need to be on every school curriculum, there is consensus on the science, so why can’t EU leaders at least do something?”
Many people will be asking similar questions. What is needed is genuine hard work behind the scenes before Mexico, to develop at least hope of something legally binding before the bickering begins in earnest yet again.
The key points of the accord
• The objective to keep the maximum temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius
•The commitment to list developed country emission reduction targets and mitigation action by developing countries for 2020
• USD 30 billion short term funding for immediate action till 2012 and USD 100 billion annually by 2020 in long term financing
• Mechanisms to support technology transfer and forestry
Resources:
Copenhagen Accord
Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention
Updated training programme for greenhouse gas inventory review experts for the technical review of greenhouse gas inventories from Parties included in Annex I to the Convention
Additional guidance to the Global Environment Facility
Methodological guidance for activities relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries
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